Why Self-driving cars aren’t meeting the hype?
Self-driving cars fired our fantasy in Total Recall, Minority Report, Love Bug, and many other movies. They promised the ultimate comfort and safety, and huge expectations developed around these cars. Unfortunately, the nascent technology and self-driving cars did not meet the hype. As per Statista, the market size for self-driving vehicles is forecast to reach only 127,000 units. This growth is less than one percent of the total car market. What went wrong?
Part of the issue is the hype that car manufacturers created. People expected a self-driving or fully autonomous car where they could enter the destination and relax while the car navigates heavy traffic. Multiple levels of technology or categories are seen in self-driving car. The technology starts with Level 1 or L1, the most basic, and goes to L5 that are fully autonomous. Most of the self-driving cars available are in L1 and L2 levels, thus crushing the expectation of owners who expect L5. The Society of Automobile Engineers presents a graphic of the five levels.
Some customers may be willing to accept self-driving cars of L2 and L4. The main issues are safety and costs. Are these cars safe? What are the benefits of owning these cars?
Safety, and legal issues of self-driving cars
The safety of self-driving car is of great concern and has created fear. A 2021 report by the National Law Review points out that the accident rate of self-driving car was 9.1 per million miles driven while non-autonomous cars had accident rates of 4.1 per million miles. The accident rate for self-driving car is more than two times that of traditional driven vehicles. People tend to avoid cars with autonomous technology.
Several technology aids that increase the safety of autonomous cars are available. Some of these aids are Light Detection and Ranging – LiDAR, road departure mitigation and lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, collision mitigation braking, and several others. These appear to give a certain perception of safety. However, there are several unresolved problems like converting 3D terrain into 2D maps, low internet zones, bad weather, rain, snow, cyber-attacks, and human errors.
These issues can seriously interfere with the onboard sensors and blind the car, leading to accidents. If the driver is sleeping, he will not have the time or reflexes to take control of the car when it is in trouble. It appears that self-driving car do not meet the legal safety requirements and many cities do not these vehicles on public roads. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google operates some limited L4 taxis in LA, San Francisco, and Phoenix, and that’s it. With the high accident rate and the notoriety of poor safety, is it the end for self-driving cars?
Do self-driving cars have a future?
McKinsey explains that by 2035, self-driving car have good potential and generate USD 400 billion in revenue. This is an emerging technology and it can transform private and public transportation, besides adding value to the bottom line of automobile firms. Self-driving cars would be invaluable to the elderly, people with disabilities, and trucking firms that have a chronic shortage of drivers. Commuters who drive in clogged traffic will appreciate this technology.
To gain wider adoption, technology for self-driving cars has to be upgraded. Navigation in inclement weather, the ability to read and interpret GPS markers, traffic signs, obstacles such as gates, hedges, errant traffic jams, dug-up roads, and parking have to improve. Internet connectivity, reaction and decision times of the systems have to be fast. When linked with AI systems, this technology can radically change our mobility. This is specifically useful for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing vehicles, used in metros. Proof of safety, ease of use, and assurance of suitability can encourage customers to pay additional costs for a self-driving car.
Encouraged by the potential of self-driving cars, Alphabet of Waymo, Tesla, GM, Uber, and Microsoft with Volkswagen, Audi, Aptiv, Argo, Mercedes, Hyundai, Mobileye, Autox, BMW, May Mobility and several other firms are developing autonomous vehicles. Simultaneous development is needed in navigation, control, and protocol systems. A collaborative environment with supporting policies from the government will accelerate the proliferation of self-driving cars.
Therefore, as of now, self-driving cars appear to be over-hyped, and losing the luster. Sci-fi movies and narratives by auto manufacturers have added the hype and gross expectations. However, it is an emerging technology and requires adequate investment is made to upgrade the technology, and government support. Then in a few years, self-driving cars will certainly meet the hype and unmet needs of customers.
About the author :
Mr. Shashi Kadapa
Based in Pune, India, Mr. Shashi Kadapa is an engineer, MBA and has worked with leading IT and manufacturing firms. A multi-hyphenate, he has roles as a technical writer, and SEO content writer with a focus on IT and tech topics.
Creative fiction is his passion, and he serves as the managing editor of ActiveMuse, a journal of literature. His stories across multiple genres are published in more than 45 US and UK anthologies. His creative works
Mr. Shashi Kadapa can be contacted at :
E-mail | LinkedIn | Blog | Mobile : +91 7387492371
